Thoughts for Aragons *Long Read*

"Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com" (exage03040) 10/16/2020 at 19:15 • Filed to: motogp, Motorsport, Motorcycles

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Joan Mir

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MotoGP is now down two of it’s star attractions with Rossi waking up feeling unwell and testing positive for COVID-19 and Marc Marquez still rehabilitating from his surgeries. So you may be wondering, who the MotoGP fans are going to be routing for the upcoming first race at Aragon?

This is my first full season of attentive following and it has been more unpredictable than imaginable. This is a season that could very well be made into a film following any of the top 16 riders currently or just in general coverage.

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Fabio Quartararo goes into Aragon with a small buffer in points [115] against Joan Mir [105] (Pictured Above) and Andrea Dovizioso [97]. He will need this buffer, his championship is still very much in danger.

Aragon is not a circuit that particularly favours Yamaha or their riders on race day. In fact Andrea Dovizioso has made the podium in 2nd place here twice the past 2 years, only losing to Marc Marquez.

Last year Dovi and Jack Miller put the significant power advantage of their Ducatis to blast by Maverick Viñales on the back stretch of Aragon for 2nd and 3rd after a Marc run away.

Dovi led the 2018 Aragon race for a significant amount of laps causing Marc Marquez to make absolutely insane passes as the laps drew to a close. Both were closely hunted by the Suzukis of Alex Rins and Andrea Iannone.

This leads into Suzuki which may be dark horses due to their Road Rash like performance last year. Both bikes finish missing alternate fairing wings due to hitting other bikes. Alex Rins wiped out Franco Morbidelli on a very poor dive bomb on the first lap and took a long lap penalty. The bikes look strong this year in race form but not quite up to the pace for top row qualifying.

Quartararo himself was 5th last year, some 3-4 seconds off Viñales and the Ducatis at the end.

Pol Espargaró

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Jack Miller may finally have some luck. After sucking in Quatararos tear-off at Misano 2 and an engine problem last week at Le Mans he may be on a for an emotionally charged ride. Johann Zarco may also get his Ducati wound up for this one. Maybe Danilo Petrucci or Francesco Bagnaia though they’re record here is not great.

KTM has a similar bike to Ducati this year. Tracks that favour Ducati see KTM also put in good results. Pol Espargaró may be able to hustle the KTM into some sort of podium contention again coming off a 3rd place at Le Mans. Miguel Oliveria may also surprise and have a quick pace.

Perhaps Viñales might make his pace stick Sunday with his Yamaha. At the end of the day even if Quartararo and him make front row are going to have their work cut out again these two races. They are going to have to push it but neither can afford to have a poor race or go down this Sunday. Morbidelli hasn’t been too quick here in the past.

Finally would be Honda and Aprilia. I don’t really expect too much out of either camps for this first race but stranger things have happened. Takaaki Nakagami may be somewhat quick but I wouldn’t expect podium as Aragon isn’t typically a race of attrition and accident survival typically separating into many distinct running groups seconds apart. I don’t expect Cal Crutchlow to be a front runner either but he has had top 10 finishes before.

Fabio Quartararo goes for a slide after the FP1 Checker

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FP1 proved to be too chilly for the riders to go out on time and ended up being delayed. When finally going out there was a distinct and surprising difference in pace between the top running Yamahas and the sluggish Ducatis in last. Thoughts are the Ducati were having issues building heat in the tires effecting grip. Various right hand corners were also spelling doom for riders causing numerous low side front tire washouts including Quartararo (pictured above).

FP2 warmed up to normal track temperatures. Like FP1 the Yamaha went about with 1, 2, 3 times at the top in various swaps with Viñales ultimately being quickest end of session.

However a convicted Mir began spooling up the Suzuki and posting times between the Yamahas, even topping them at points during the session. His last minute hot laps were interrupted by the slower Ducati of last weeks winner Petrucci and he showed visible frustration towards the Italian. This is the strongest performance I’ve seen Mir do in a FP ultimately being 4th. Mir is likely to Quali in the top 3 rows and if Yamaha runs out of tire Sunday with him (and or Rins) in the hunt they could be in huge trouble.

Below became a slight surprise. 3 Honda’s in the top 10: Crutchlow 5th, Marquez 8th, Taka 9th. Perhaps younger Marquez has found some confidence after 2nd place last week? Marc absolutely killed everyone on this circuit last year so Honda probably knows a good set-up.

Aleix Espargaró managed to go 6th on the Aprilia after getting a tow from top running Viñales. Aprilia actually had a 7th place result with him last year so he very well could have a top 10 pace.

Brother Pol Espargaró went 7th with the KTM. His performance is not something to be discounted this season, especially fresh off a 3rd place finish last week. KTM has also shown acceptable tire management during race conditions though not quite as good as Suzuki.

Alex Rins managed 10th proving the Suzuki is a solid bike at this circuit.

Ducatis down! Dovi and Zarco’s Catalunya Crash

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Ducati made up positions 11-15 (every Duc rider except Bagnaia in 19th) all are within 0.3s of Alex Rins. The biggest problem for Ducati is that tomorrow is going to be another cold morning and has been premeptively posponed by 1 hour . FP2 times may not be achievable tomorrow for FP3. This would put every Ducati into Q1 and odds are that with the warmer afternoon we could likely see 2 Ducati riders into Q2.

pip bip - choose Corrour > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 10/16/2020 at 23:28

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ideally i’d like to see Fab Quat win

flatisflat > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 10/16/2020 at 23:50

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Appreciate the write-up; it was a good read. :)

Even though you hardly put your neck on the line with any of your guesses , I do raise a bit of an objection on the “Who May Rise” section. But only because it’s 2020 and this season has been sooooooo stuuuuuupid and providing nearly zero regularity (even just over the course of a single weekend rather than ambitiously over the season altogether ). The 2020 MotoGP season is a statistician’s worst nightmare of a final exam. All would fail.

On the whole, I feel Quartararo will be lucky if he wins this championship. He’s not riding as strong as he did last year, but only because he’s thinking too much. His whole deal last year was being a total underdog of a rookie so any result was amazing. He had less than zero pressure on his shoulders, and that freedom allowed him to ride as he was meant to, and it was miraculous to watch. This year, he’s thinking. And after winning the first two races at Jerez, he’s only been spending more time thinking. And sparingly featured in a race for some 5 more weekends .

Dovi is perpetually unlucky. A very good rider, very analytical but also perhaps prone to believe he knows better than he actually might, but also still perpetually unlucky. And not a GREAT rider. Dovi isn’t instinctually as proficient as Quartararo, but Dovi knows how to regularly keep riding while having his brain activated.

Mir is seemingly only getting better and impressing. But having a sniff at the title is starting to show kinks in his resolve similar to what’s happened to Quartararo starting earlier in the year. Mir is starting to show signs of stress, and he’s really only just now entered into the title fight — this does not bode well for him . Marc Marquez showed similar kinks in his resolve ....when he was in the process of fighting for his 3rd consecutive MotoGP title.

This year is so jacked up that I was convinced that if Marc was able to return this weekend, he’d end up 2nd in the championship when it was all said and done.

But, regardless of how stupid this year has been, I am super looking forward to how this weekend pans out. :)

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > pip bip - choose Corrour 10/16/2020 at 23:56

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He’ll have his work cutout! Maverick might pull it together for another win this year as he’s quicker than him by precedent . Mir is looking strong, I think he had more and only went 4th in FP2 because of diddling Ducatis in the last 4min. This is the track Suzuki stated they have the best chance of winning at the start of the year. If he (and or Rins) Qualis today first or second row I think Suzuki have a very good chance at a podium.

I want to see MotoGP go into Portimao with 3 (or more) riders with good chances to take the riders championship. Where every position counts on a circuit they’ve haven’t raced. I think it’ll be very special to whoever wins.

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > flatisflat 10/17/2020 at 01:46

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Thanks, appreciate it!

Oh it’s tough to get any semblance of what exactly is going to go down. Even if you watch the whole weekend for each of these races there’s no beat to follow apart from generalities. Even then you’ll get something like a rain at Le Mans (I looked at the forecast because I was trying for the Quali Tissot watch, 0.289s off :( , and it was 10% POP for race time Sunday), Red Flag and general race incidents.

Mir is doing very well. I wasn’t expecting anything from him last week at Le Mans. He’s not good there even without the rain. If he had another 2 more laps at Catalunya (or maybe qualified 2nd row), he would have beaten Quartararo there.

I think it’s safe to say that Quartararo has had his mind a little to much on performing, like Mir he has circuit s he’s good at and some not so much; not a total alien yet . It’s fair to say that most of the riders do better when they aren’t on squeeze and are at least enjoying the riding a little bit. I think this has effected Dovi too with the internal Ducati politics. At least it makes it interesting.

I’m leaning for Quartararo down on points after these 2 weekends . Maverick is quicker and if he doesn’t have a bungled start, might dice it up. E ither Suzuki is big BIG problem if they’re on the first 2 rows. E ven Nakagami might be blessed by the season that is 2020. I’ll wake up to Quali done, I figure no better times for FP3 because of low temp ( I’ll stay up to watch) and it will be 2 Ducatis through to Q2. I sort of hope it’s Dovi and Miller but could be Zarco.

In the future I believe Valencia is better for Quartararo but the times were close last year. Portimao remains a big question mark because with no recent precedent but it seems more suited to Yamaha and Suzuki rather than Ducati and KTM .